The answer may be obvious, but I just wanted to confirm:

Due to the declining residuals of 2010 model vehicles, at this time of the year, doesn't it really make more sense to wait for the 2011's?

Thanks.

In general, you may be able to find a better deal (price-wise) on a new car at the end of the model year. Right now, for example, Honda is offering dealer cash on Accords over $1k and even cash on Civics (which they don't do often). The list of incentive deals and dealer cash is pretty long right now. So you can likely save up front by getting a better price than waiting for a fresh 11 car, but the residual now will be lower than on a new 11 in a few months. Getting a good price on the new car just as important has a low rate and nice residual amount.

With a captive lease bank (one owned by the car maker) all bets are off, as they can play with the rates and residuals to move cars at any time during the year.

Thanks, that's true about the automakers and their captive financing arrangements.
They can do whatever they want to the numbers.

At the end of the day, it's still going to boil down to shopping and getting multiple quotes to see who wants to sell a car.

When I was in the market for a G35 / G37 I charted the cost per month over time for several months. I assumed the purchase price was constant (I had a VPP claim code so it was for me). Each month IFS would play with the residual and MF so you would have a wide variety of payments for the same car - and that was at a fixed price. So there was no "best time" to buy with a captive lease, you had to just track it for a while so you would know a good deal when it hit .

Then add in that the dealer would ask more or less for the car each month based on sales and / or factory incentives or other factors and it can be impossible to pick the "best time" to lease.

The 3rd party lease banks make it a bit easier, the residual starts high at the start of the model year and drops every month or two during the model year. The best price, but worst residual could be at the end of the model year, best residual and worst price at the start of the model year. The sweet spot may be around Jan-Feb.